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Economics prediction markets

Rates, inflation, employment and growth, by official release.

What economics prediction markets are

Economics prediction markets are contracts on official economic numbers and central bank decisions. This board is built from Kalshi's Economics category. Kalshi's Fed meeting series is one example [11].

What kinds of economics markets are there?

Examples include Federal Reserve rate decisions and monthly inflation readings. Each contract is tied to one meeting or one official release.

Kalshi's Fed decision contracts ask what the Federal Open Market Committee does at a named meeting [1]. Its CPI contracts ask about the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index [5].

Reading a price of 36 cents

A Yes price of 36 cents implies about a 36% chance of that outcome. A correct Yes contract pays $1.00 at settlement.

Kalshi says a Yes price of p cents implies about a p% probability [8]. A Fed decision contract settles at $1.00 [3].

How these markets settle

Each contract settles on one official source, named in Kalshi's rules for that contract.

How does a Fed rate decision market settle?

A Fed decision market settles on the action the Federal Open Market Committee takes at the named meeting: a hike, a cut or no change.

The source agency is the Federal Reserve System [1]. If the Fed cancels the meeting, the "No change" contract resolves Yes and the others resolve No [2].

How does a CPI market settle?

A Kalshi CPI market settles on the one-month change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index, as first published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The contract reads the CPI-U change the BLS publishes, and later revisions do not count [5].

Which venues list them

Every market on this board comes from Kalshi. For its fees and quirks, see our notes on prediction market platforms.

Kalshi only on this board

The economics board is built from Kalshi's own Economics category. Other venues are not read here, so their prices do not appear.

What moves the price

The BLS publishes CPI data at 8:30am ET [6]. The Fed releases its statement at 2:00 PM ET on the last day of a meeting [4].

What makes an economics price change?

New data moves it. Kalshi names new economic data and breaking news as things that change what a contract is worth.

Kalshi lists new economic data and breaking news stories as information that changes a contract's fair value [9]. When more traders expect Yes, the Yes price rises and the No price falls [10].

How often does the Fed meet?

The Federal Open Market Committee holds eight regularly scheduled meetings a year. It can also hold other meetings as needed.

The Federal Reserve publishes the schedule [7]. Its 2026 calendar lists meetings on October 27-28 and December 8-9 [7].

Sources (11)
  1. Kalshi Fed decision contracts settle on the FOMC's action at a named meeting; the source agency is the Federal Reserve System. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/FEDDECISION.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  2. If the meeting is cancelled, 'No change' resolves Yes and the rest resolve No. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/FEDDECISION.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  3. Fed decision contracts settle at $1.00. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/FEDDECISION.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  4. Fed statements are released at 2:00 PM ET on a meeting's last day. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/FED.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  5. Kalshi CPI contracts settle on the BLS one-month seasonally adjusted CPI-U change; later revisions do not count. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/CPI.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  6. CPI data is released at 8:30am ET. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/CPI.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  7. The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings a year; the 2026 calendar lists October 27-28 and December 8-9. www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm (checked 2026-09-25)
  8. A Yes price of p cents implies about a p% probability. news.kalshi.com/p/how-to-read-probabilities (checked 2026-09-25)
  9. New economic data and breaking news change a contract's fair value. news.kalshi.com/p/how-to-read-probabilities (checked 2026-09-25)
  10. When the perceived likelihood of Yes rises, the Yes price rises and the No price falls. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
  11. Kalshi files Fed decision markets under its Economics category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXFEDDECISION (checked 2026-09-25)

More on: prediction market arbitrage

See also: financial prediction markets, election prediction markets, entertainment prediction markets

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