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Oil & gas prediction markets

Where the crude and natural gas settlement price lands, by day, week and month.

What oil and gas prediction markets are

Oil and gas prediction markets are yes-or-no contracts on energy prices. Each contract is worth $1 if you are right [2]. A typical Kalshi question asks whether WTI crude will settle above a set price on a given day [5].

The board below lists Kalshi markets on WTI crude, Brent crude, natural gas, diesel and oil rigs.

What does the price of an oil market mean?

The price is the market's estimate of the chance that yes wins. A yes contract at 30 cents implies about a 30% chance.

Kalshi says its prices track how likely traders think an event is [1]. In Kalshi's example, a 70-cent yes and a 30-cent no add up to $1 [1].

How these markets settle

Each Kalshi oil and gas series names its own price source [4][7][8]. If a source publishes nothing for a week, Kalshi settles on the most recent available data [3].

What price settles a Kalshi WTI crude market?

Kalshi's WTI markets settle on the daily settlement price of the nearest listed WTI futures contract. Kalshi lists ICE as the source.

Kalshi's WTI market for September 28, 2026 pays on the daily settlement price of the November 2026 contract [5]. Kalshi rolls to the next contract month two business days before the current contract's last trading day [5]. The series names ICE as its settlement source [4].

How do Brent and natural gas markets settle?

Kalshi's daily Brent and natural gas markets settle on the closing price of a one-minute candle at a stated time, such as 5 p.m. Eastern.

Kalshi's Brent and natural gas markets for September 28, 2026 both use the 5:00 p.m. EDT one-minute close [6][15]. Both daily series name Pyth as their price source [7][8]. Pyth says its feeds draw on more than 120 first-party providers, including exchanges, banks and trading firms [9].

Which venues list them

The oil and gas board on this page reads Kalshi. Every series it shows is a Kalshi series. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market [14]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi.

What moves the price

These contracts pay on an energy price [3]. What moves that price moves the market.

What moves crude oil prices?

The US Energy Information Administration lists seven factors: spot prices, OPEC and non-OPEC supply, inventories, financial markets, and demand inside and outside the OECD.

EIA names these as the key factors behind crude oil prices [10]. EIA publishes weekly US inventory data in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report [11]. The main tables come out after 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesdays [11].

What moves natural gas prices?

EIA lists three supply factors: production, gas in storage, and imports and exports. It lists three demand factors: weather, economic growth, and other fuel prices.

EIA names these six factors [12]. EIA says a short-term rise in demand or drop in supply can cause large price changes, especially in winter [16]. EIA reports US gas in underground storage each week in its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [13].

Sources (16)
  1. Kalshi contract prices track the market's perceived probability of the event; Kalshi's example pairs a 70-cent Yes with a 30-cent No. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
  2. A Kalshi contract is worth $1 if you are right. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823766-what-are-prediction-markets (checked 2026-09-25)
  3. If the source agency publishes no data and none is expected within a week, Kalshi uses the most recently available data; a formal correction issued within 24 hours replaces the original price. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/COMMODITIES.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  4. Kalshi's WTI daily series (KXWTI) names ICE as its settlement source. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXWTI (checked 2026-09-25)
  5. Kalshi's WTI market for Sep 28, 2026 settles on the daily settlement price of the November 2026 WTI contract, rolling to the next month 2 business days before the current contract's last trading day. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXWTI-26SEP2814… (checked 2026-09-25)
  6. Kalshi's Brent market for Sep 28, 2026 settles on the close of the 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT, rounded to 2 decimal places. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXBRENTD-26SEP2… (checked 2026-09-25)
  7. Kalshi's daily Brent series (KXBRENTD) names Pyth as its settlement source. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXBRENTD (checked 2026-09-25)
  8. Kalshi's daily natural gas series (KXNATGASD) names Pyth as its settlement source. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXNATGASD (checked 2026-09-25)
  9. Pyth price feeds draw on more than 120 first-party providers, including exchanges, banks and trading firms. docs.pyth.network/price-feeds (checked 2026-09-25)
  10. EIA lists seven key factors influencing crude oil prices: spot prices, non-OPEC supply, OPEC supply, inventories (supply-demand balance), financial markets, non-OECD demand and OECD demand. www.eia.gov/finance/markets/crudeoil/ (checked 2026-09-25)
  11. EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report summary and main tables are released after 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday. www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php (checked 2026-09-25)
  12. EIA names three supply-side factors (production, storage, imports/exports) and three demand-side factors (weather, economic growth, other fuels) affecting natural gas prices; short-term demand rises or supply cuts can cause large price changes, especially in winter. www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/factors-affecting-nat… (checked 2026-09-25)
  13. EIA publishes a Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report estimating working gas in underground storage in the Lower 48 states. ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html (checked 2026-09-25)
  14. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated (checked 2026-09-25)
  15. Kalshi's natural gas market for Sep 28, 2026 settles on the close of the 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXNATGASD-26SEP… (checked 2026-09-25)
  16. EIA: short-term demand increases or supply reductions can cause large natural gas price changes, especially in winter. www.eia.gov/energyexplained/natural-gas/factors-affecting-nat… (checked 2026-09-25)

More on: prediction market arbitrage

See also: gold prediction markets, crypto prediction markets, weather prediction markets

Related: prediction market platforms

PARTIAL430 markets across 11 series 

WTI carries the volume here — 203 open markets against Brent’s 60. Both settle on the exchange price, so these are price questions, not event questions.

Some series did not answer this scan, so this board is incomplete. It is showing what it could read, not everything that exists.

WTI crude

  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >116.99 on Nov 3, 2026?3¢91,887 vol
  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >72.99 on Nov 3, 2026?95¢48,852 vol
  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >99.99 on Nov 3, 2026?18¢35,790 vol
  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >76.99 on Nov 3, 2026?93¢32,752 vol
  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >104.99 on Nov 3, 2026?9¢28,679 vol
  • Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 91.99 USD/Bbl on Oct 13, 2026?65¢26,504 vol
  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >97.99 on Nov 3, 2026?24¢25,704 vol
  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >114.99 on Nov 3, 2026?5¢24,733 vol
  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >115.99 on Nov 3, 2026?5¢24,286 vol
  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >79.99 on Nov 3, 2026?93¢24,158 vol
  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >74.99 on Nov 3, 2026?92¢24,148 vol
  • Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >93.99 on Nov 3, 2026?41¢23,473 vol

Brent crude

  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 103.50 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?36¢1,656 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99.50 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?96¢1,572 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 103 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?46¢1,460 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 100 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?92¢1,399 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 106 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?6¢1,154 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 104 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?27¢1,118 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 101.50 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?75¢979 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 105 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?12¢959 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 100.50 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?87¢886 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 101 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?81¢718 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 102.50 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?57¢647 vol
  • Will the brent crude oil close price be above 102 USD/Bbl on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?66¢567 vol

Natural gas

  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.245 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?no offer1,010 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.240 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?no offer510 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.290 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?98¢484 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.280 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?99¢442 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.285 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?99¢299 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.190 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?no offer272 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.270 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?99¢264 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.150 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?no offer250 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.440 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?50¢203 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.195 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?no offer202 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.260 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?no offer112 vol
  • Will the natural gas close price be above 3.430 USD/MMBtu on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?54¢72 vol

Diesel & rigs

Nothing open across 2 series right now.