Weather prediction markets

What weather prediction markets are

Weather prediction markets are yes-or-no contracts on a measured weather figure for one place and one day ^[1].

What does a weather prediction market ask?

A weather market asks whether one figure, such as a city's daily high or rainfall, will land above a set level on a set day.

Source: ^[1][2].

Reading a weather market's price

The price of a Yes contract, in cents, reads as a probability. A Yes at 70 cents means traders see about a 70% chance ^[3].

How these markets settle

Each Kalshi weather market names one data source in its rules ^[1].

Which data settles Kalshi's temperature markets?

The maximum temperature reported by The Weather Company for the named station settles the market. Other weather apps and forecasts do not count.

Source: ^[1][4].

Does an early reading settle the market?

No. Kalshi warns that preliminary Weather Company readings can differ from the final value because of rounding and conversion. The final value settles it.

Source: ^[5].

How does a rain market settle?

A rain market settles Yes if the station records more than zero inches of precipitation that day. Trace amounts and missing values count as zero.

Source: ^[2][6].

What if the published data has an error?

Kalshi can hold settlement until corrected data is published. If no data arrives in time, markets settle at Kalshi's last fair price.

Source: ^[7].

Which venues list them

Predictmoni's weather board reads Kalshi and covers US cities only ^[8]. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market ^[9]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi prices.

Polymarket also lists weather markets. The same notes explain how we read Polymarket prices.

Does Polymarket list weather markets?

Yes. Polymarket lists daily temperature markets for cities outside the US, such as London. Predictmoni's weather board does not show them.

Source: ^[10].

How does a Polymarket temperature market settle?

A Polymarket London market settles on NOAA's highest reading at the London City Airport station. Polymarket resolves markets through UMA's optimistic oracle.

Source: ^[10][11].

What moves the price

Kalshi says a Yes price rises when traders think Yes is more likely, and falls when they think it is less likely ^[12].

What changes a weather market's price?

Forecasts change the odds, so prices move as forecasts change. Kalshi's rules name AccuWeather and Google Weather as guides, not settlement sources.

Source: ^[4].