Elections prediction markets

Races, nominations and margins, priced as probabilities.

What elections prediction markets are

Elections prediction markets are contracts on who wins a race or which party takes a seat. This board is built from Kalshi's Elections category. Alaska governor is one example ^[10].

What does an elections contract pay?

Each contract pays $1.00 if its outcome happens and nothing if it does not. Prices trade between 1 cent and 99 cents.

Kalshi's rules set the settlement value at $1.00 ^[5]. Kalshi lists these contracts at prices from $0.01 to $0.99 ^[6]. Kalshi is registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market ^[6].

Reading a price of 30 cents

A Yes price of 30 cents implies about a 30% chance, according to Kalshi. It is the venue's price, not a forecast.

Kalshi says a Yes price of p cents implies a market-implied probability of about p% ^[7].

How these markets settle

Each race settles on a source named in its contract rules. The source depends on the type of race.

How does a governor's race settle?

Kalshi uses the official election results produced by the state. The contract pays holders of the winning candidate's Yes side.

Kalshi's governor rules name the state's official results as the deciding source ^[1].

How does a Senate race settle?

A Senate seat contract settles on the party of the first winner sworn into the Senate. The source is the United States Congress.

The rule looks at the first candidate who presents a certificate of election and is sworn in for the new term ^[3]. If that person switches party before taking the seat, the contract uses their party on election day ^[4].

Can a race settle before official results?

Yes. A US race can settle early when at least four of eight named news desks call a winner and none disagree.

Kalshi's rules name the eight desks: The New York Times, The Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News and ABC News ^[2].

Which venues list them

Every market on this board comes from Kalshi. For its fees and quirks, see our notes on prediction market platforms.

Kalshi only on this board

The elections board is built from Kalshi's own Elections category. Other venues are not read here, so their prices do not appear.

What moves the price

What makes an elections price change?

New information moves it. Kalshi names breaking news and fresh polls as things that change what a contract is worth.

Kalshi lists new economic data, breaking news stories and fresh polls as information that changes a contract's fair value ^[8]. When more traders expect Yes, the Yes price rises and the No price falls ^[9].

Sources (10)

Kalshi governor contracts settle on the official election results produced by the state. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/GOV.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
A US race can resolve early when four of eight named media desks call it and none contradicts; the eight desks. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/GOV.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi Senate seat contracts settle on the party of the first certified winner sworn in; the source agency is the US Congress. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/SENATEPARTY.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
A party switch after election day does not change the result. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/SENATEPARTY.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi election contracts settle at $1.00. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/GOV.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi is a CFTC-registered designated contract market; contracts list between $0.01 and $0.99. assets.kalshi.com/regulatory/product-certifications/GOV.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
A Yes price of p cents implies about a p% probability. news.kalshi.com/p/how-to-read-probabilities (checked 2026-09-25)
New economic data, breaking news and fresh polls change a contract's fair value. news.kalshi.com/p/how-to-read-probabilities (checked 2026-09-25)
When the perceived likelihood of Yes rises, the Yes price rises and the No price falls. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
Kalshi files governor races under its Elections category. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXGOVAK (checked 2026-09-25)