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Metals prediction markets

Gold, silver, copper and the platinum group, as settlement-price thresholds.

What metals prediction markets are

Metals prediction markets are yes-or-no contracts on metal prices. Each contract is worth $1 if you are right [2]. A typical Kalshi question asks whether gold will close above a set price at 5 p.m. Eastern on a given day [5].

The board below lists Kalshi markets on gold, silver, copper, platinum and palladium.

How should I read a metals market price?

Read the yes price as the market's odds. A yes contract at 25 cents means traders see about a 25% chance of yes.

Kalshi says its prices track how likely traders think an event is [1].

How these markets settle

Kalshi's daily metals series name Pyth as their price source [4][6][7]. Pyth says its feeds draw on more than 120 first-party providers [8].

What price settles a Kalshi gold market?

A Kalshi daily gold market settles on the closing price of a one-minute gold candle at 5 p.m. Eastern, with Pyth as the source.

Kalshi's gold market for September 28, 2026 pays on the close of the one-minute candle at 5:00 p.m. EDT [5]. The daily gold series names Pyth as its settlement source [4].

Do silver and copper markets settle the same way?

Kalshi's daily silver and copper series also name Pyth as their price source. Silver is quoted per troy ounce and copper per pound.

The silver and copper series list Pyth as their settlement source [6][7]. Kalshi's commodities terms give troy ounces for silver and pounds for copper [13].

What if the price source makes an error?

If the source corrects an error within 24 hours, Kalshi uses the corrected price. Without a correction in that window, the first price stands.

Both rules appear in Kalshi's commodities contract terms [3]. They cover errors from a system fault, a data feed malfunction or a technical error [3].

Which venues list them

The metals board on this page reads Kalshi only. Every series it shows is a Kalshi series. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market [12]. Our notes on prediction market platforms explain how we read Kalshi.

What moves the price

These contracts pay on a metal price [3]. What moves that price moves the market.

What moves the gold price?

The World Gold Council's return model tracks drivers such as economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, currency and interest-rate opportunity cost, and momentum.

The council says gold prices come from long- and short-term drivers of supply and demand [9]. Its Gold Return Attribution Model lists these drivers [14].

Where does silver and copper demand come from?

The Silver Institute reports record industrial silver demand in 2024. USGS says electrical uses account for about three quarters of copper use.

The Silver Institute says industrial demand had another record year in 2024 [10]. USGS says electrical uses account for about three quarters of total copper use [11].

Sources (14)
  1. Kalshi contract prices track the market's perceived probability of the event; Kalshi's example pairs a 70-cent Yes with a 30-cent No. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823836-how-are-prices-determined (checked 2026-09-25)
  2. A Kalshi contract is worth $1 if you are right. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823766-what-are-prediction-markets (checked 2026-09-25)
  3. Kalshi's commodities terms: a source correction for a system fault, data feed malfunction or technical error issued within 24 hours is used; otherwise the original price is final. Standard units: troy ounce for gold, silver, platinum, palladium; pound for copper. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/COMMODITIES.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  4. Kalshi's daily gold series (KXGOLDD) names Pyth as its settlement source. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXGOLDD (checked 2026-09-25)
  5. Kalshi's gold market for Sep 28, 2026 settles on the close of the 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT, rounded to 2 decimal places. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXGOLDD-26SEP28… (checked 2026-09-25)
  6. Kalshi's daily silver series (KXSILVERD) names Pyth as its settlement source. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXSILVERD (checked 2026-09-25)
  7. Kalshi's daily copper series (KXCOPPERD) names Pyth as its settlement source. api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series/KXCOPPERD (checked 2026-09-25)
  8. Pyth price feeds draw on more than 120 first-party providers, including exchanges, banks and trading firms. docs.pyth.network/price-feeds (checked 2026-09-25)
  9. The World Gold Council says gold prices are set by long- and short-term drivers of supply and demand; its GRAM model quantifies each driver's contribution to monthly or weekly returns, with drivers including economic expansion, risk & uncertainty, opportunity cost (FX and interest rates) and momentum. www.gold.org/goldhub/tools/gold-return-attribution-model (checked 2026-09-25)
  10. The Silver Institute reports that industrial silver demand had another record year in 2024. www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/ (checked 2026-09-25)
  11. USGS: electrical uses account for about three quarters of total copper use. www.usgs.gov/centers/national-minerals-information-center/cop… (checked 2026-09-25)
  12. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC as a Designated Contract Market. help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823765-how-is-kalshi-regulated (checked 2026-09-25)
  13. Kalshi's commodities terms give troy ounce as the unit for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, and pound for copper. assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/COMMODITIES.pdf (checked 2026-09-25)
  14. GRAM driver examples: Economic Expansion, Risk & Uncertainty, Opportunity Cost (FX), Opportunity Cost (Interest Rates), Momentum & Trends. www.gold.org/goldhub/tools/gold-return-attribution-model (checked 2026-09-25)

More on: prediction market arbitrage

See also: weather prediction markets, oil prediction markets, AI prediction markets

Related: prediction market platforms

PARTIAL400 markets across 13 series 

Kalshi-only, and deliberately. Gold and silver run 201 open markets each here, while Polymarket’s entire metals complex is 76 markets on about $32k of daily volume and its metals tag is empty. Showing a second venue would imply a comparison there is nothing to compare.

Some series did not answer this scan, so this board is incomplete. It is showing what it could read, not everything that exists.

Gold

  • Will the gold close price be above 4192.99 USD/t.oz on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?52¢4,026 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4152.99 USD/t.oz on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?59¢3,804 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4112.99 USD/t.oz on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?69¢2,112 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4104 USD/t.oz on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?no offer1,543 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4087.99 USD/t.oz on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?91¢1,301 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4312.99 USD/t.oz on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?28¢1,294 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4227.99 USD/t.oz on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?35¢1,265 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4712.99 USD/t.oz on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?3¢978 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4232.99 USD/t.oz on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?43¢941 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4154 USD/t.oz on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?91¢830 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4472.99 USD/t.oz on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?10¢820 vol
  • Will the gold close price be above 4167.99 USD/t.oz on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?64¢803 vol

Silver

  • Will the silver close price be above 60 USD/t.oz on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?75¢753 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 66.99 USD/t.oz on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?2¢687 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 60.99 USD/t.oz on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?43¢663 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 60.75 USD/t.oz on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?43¢620 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 59.99 USD/t.oz on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?64¢377 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 61 USD/t.oz on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?31¢305 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 60.50 USD/t.oz on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?58¢121 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 59.75 USD/t.oz on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?83¢92 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 62.99 USD/t.oz on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?12¢86 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 63.99 USD/t.oz on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?6¢50 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 61.99 USD/t.oz on October 16, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?23¢49 vol
  • Will the silver close price be above 60.25 USD/t.oz on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?69¢42 vol

Copper

  • Will the copper close price be above 7.10 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?4¢6,109 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 7.12 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?4¢2,859 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 7.08 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?5¢2,859 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 6.80 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?68¢267 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 6.84 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?37¢210 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 6.76 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?79¢203 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 6.82 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?52¢202 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 6.78 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?79¢184 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 6.74 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?89¢160 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 7.14 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?4¢160 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 7.06 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?5¢160 vol
  • Will the copper close price be above 7.04 USD/Lbs on October 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?5¢160 vol

Platinum & palladium

Nothing open across 2 series right now.